Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa1f4…2b0c other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%59W / 74L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 26% +$1
politics 18% −$10
sports 15% +$36
crypto 4% +$3
economics 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 16 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 +29.5% +17.1% 35% 5% -9.6%
all 133 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 5% -8.8%
10% -5.7% 4% -17.6%
15% -14.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -23.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses59 / 74
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage486d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 51¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 72¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $161 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 −$4 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $26 +$2 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $41 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $70 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $64 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $1 $0 +23%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $33 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $43 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $48 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $47 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $0.00 · 520 history records