Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1ef…1faa crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-8%) realized −$27 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%70W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day52.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 54% −$13
crypto 36% −$8
other 3% −$2
sports 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 51% -15.5%
≤30d 136 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 51% -15.5%
≤90d 136 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 51% -15.5%
all 136 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 51% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 51% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 19% -23.6%
15% -32.4% 9% -31.0%
20% -39.1% 4% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses70 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)136 / 141
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $166 $184 +$18 (+11%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $71 $41 −$29 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $34 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 49m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 15h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 15h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.56 · official $232.52 (match) · 330 history records