Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa1ee…0267 sports 520 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,301 (-10%) realized −$6,346 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%241W / 278L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days−$4
14 days−$1,081
30 days−$2,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$5,310
other 27% −$1,052
world 2% −$101
crypto 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 52% -9.6%
≤30d 90 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 41% -28.5%
≤90d 389 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 42% -24.6%
all 519 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 45% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 45% -18.7%
10% -26.4% 42% -26.5%
15% -33.6% 39% -33.6%
20% -40.1% 32% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$93 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$6,346
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses241 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions1
Markets (closed)519 / 520
History coverage197d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs Rune Eaters 64¢ 81¢ $170 $216 +$45 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $177 +$46 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$42 +84%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne Jun 26 $55 +$30 +54%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 25 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $185 +$8 +4%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $58 +$39 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $241 −$96 -40%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $243 +$173 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $298 +$163 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $166 +$132 +79%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $238 +$188 +79%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $454 +$293 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $200 −$197 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $239 −$139 -58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $256 −$253 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $184 +$73 +40%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $101 +$83 +82%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $208 −$99 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $39 +$63 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$21 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$9 +107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $546 −$138 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $379 −$376 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $222 +$214 +96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $128 +$95 +74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $259 −$132 -51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $147 +$113 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $299 −$294 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $247 −$244 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $245 −$242 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $142 +$100 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $177 +$82 +46%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $77 −$76 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$36 +87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $85 −$44 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $142 +$52 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $49 −$48 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$94 -92%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $188 −$86 -46%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $96 +$54 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $118 −$96 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 64¢ $172 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 100¢ $173 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 53¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne SELL The Huns Esports 34¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY The Huns Esports 55¢ $85 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 97¢ $85 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 62¢ $55 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 60¢ $30 11h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 60¢ $163 11h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $193 11h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $185 12h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner SELL BESTIA 99¢ $97 12h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 58¢ $58 12h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 39¢ $145 12h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 64¢ $241 14h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 97¢ $417 19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $243 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $298 35h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $298 37h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $166 39h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 100¢ $426 43h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 55¢ $238 46h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 61¢ $193 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $747 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $454 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $200 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 62¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.75 · official $215.75 (match) · 1095 history records