Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A1 0xa1ec…4f9f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$83 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$185per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-6.6%	-15.5%	50%	50%	-1.7%
≤30d	4	-6.6%	-15.5%	50%	50%	-1.7%
≤90d	4	-6.6%	-15.5%	50%	50%	-1.7%
all	4	-6.6%	-15.5%	50%	50%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.5%	50%	-1.7%
10%	-23.6%	25%	-11.1%
15%	-30.9%	25%	-19.7%
20%	-37.7%	25%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$53 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$1,060

Realized+$76

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)4 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$185

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$288	$296	+$8 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	70¢	74¢	$200	$210	+$10 (+5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	60¢	58¢	$200	$195	−$5 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$165	$164	−$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$150	$146	−$4 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$239	+$130	+55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$245	−$5	-2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$201	+$43	+21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	65¢	$167	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$152	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$239	11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	83¢	$239	11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$245	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$292	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	60¢	$202	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$202	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$201	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.95 · official $1,059.95 (match) · 13 history records