Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1e7…d5cb
sports · 98 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$96 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)79 / 98
History coverage536d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 19 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$7
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 71¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 75¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 64¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 55¢ 28¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$15 +1475%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +249%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +116%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -27%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $6 +$4 +75%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $26 −$2 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +26%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$9 +785%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$3 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $0 $0 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$65
politics 22% −$7
other 11% −$1
world 7% −$6
finance 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $3 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 70¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $3 6h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $3 6h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 9h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 81¢ $16 9h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 5¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 13h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 38h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 39h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +40.8% +27.4% 43% 38% -12.3%
≤30d 50 +20.5% +9.0% 38% 32% -20.6%
≤90d 53 +13.7% +2.9% 36% 30% -36.5%
all 79 +8.8% -1.5% 38% 29% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 29% -13.3%
10% -11.0% 27% -21.6%
15% -19.6% 20% -29.2%
20% -27.5% 15% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.13 · official $83.07 (match) · 269 history records