Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1e4…4f8a sports 890 markets active 10d ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48,834 (-3%) realized −$48,832 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%305W / 584L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,762per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$26,478est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$79,442
other 17% +$12,289
crypto 1% −$5,927
world 1% −$8,612
economics 0% −$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 87 -21.0% -28.5% 23% 23% -34.6%
≤90d 889 -7.9% -16.7% 34% 34% -14.3%
all 889 -7.9% -16.7% 34% 34% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 34% -14.3%
10% -24.7% 33% -22.5%
15% ← realistic here -32.0% 33% -30.0%
20% -38.6% 31% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$2,443) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,807 vs −$1,607 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$48,832
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses305 / 584
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$26,478
Open positions1
Markets (closed)889 / 890
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,762
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 889 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,985 −$1,945 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,016 −$1,029 -34%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $544 −$134 -25%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4,951 +$2,297 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2,052 −$2,000 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,642 −$1,600 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5,057 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,037 −$2,000 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,770 −$1,733 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,089 +$3,537 +169%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4,979 +$4,307 +86%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,834 −$1,809 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $902 +$1,028 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2,043 +$5,100 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,038 +$3,362 +165%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2,016 −$1,965 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $229 −$224 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2,827 −$2,757 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,159 +$4,141 +41%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $824 −$824 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $308 −$308 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $904 −$904 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $512 −$512 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 12 $1,284 −$602 -47%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $965 −$965 -100%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? Jun 12 $767 −$767 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 12 $844 −$844 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $852 −$852 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,926 −$1,926 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual Jun 12 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $911 −$911 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $1,297 −$1,297 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,043 −$2,043 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,443 −$2,443 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,046 −$2,046 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,492 −$2,492 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,952 −$2,952 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,925 −$1,888 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $909 −$888 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,533 −$2,500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,985 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,987 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,389 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $410 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $985 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,555 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 18¢ $557 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 28¢ $907 14d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 12¢ $1,026 14d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 16¢ $1,025 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 12¢ $1,026 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 13¢ $1,642 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 57¢ $6,692 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 31¢ $1,495 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 30¢ $1,021 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $2,549 15d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $5,057 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $1,023 15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $1,017 15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $1,016 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 36¢ $1,019 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 42¢ $1,017 15d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $863 15d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $907 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 19¢ $1,024 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $5,626 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $9,286 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $906 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 2369 history records