Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
A1 0xa1e2…1073 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$3,107 (+38%) realized +$3,107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 34L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$3,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3,111
other 2% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.4% +25.2% 50% 50% +30.0%
≤30d 66 +28.5% +16.3% 50% 50% +27.6%
≤90d 67 +26.6% +14.6% 49% 49% +24.9%
all 67 +26.6% +14.6% 49% 49% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 49% +24.9%
10% +3.6% 48% +12.9%
15% -6.4% 48% +2.0%
20% -15.6% 46% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$86 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage32d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$59 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$79 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $73 +$85 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $325 +$421 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $57 +$86 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $36 +$46 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 01 $288 −$20 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $585 −$560 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $291 +$344 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $371 +$481 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $274 +$369 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 30 $233 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $209 +$417 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 30 $235 +$112 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $156 +$169 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $234 +$276 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 30 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 30 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $233 +$239 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $312 −$75 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 30 $105 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $27 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $181 +$138 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 30 $79 +$178 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $233 +$198 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 29 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $130 +$173 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 29 $79 +$124 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $104 +$167 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $157 +$345 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 29 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 29 $78 −$65 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 29 $183 +$135 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $105 +$198 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $16 +$56 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 27 $52 −$25 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $18 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $325 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $146 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $82 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $146 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $147 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $146 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $146 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records