Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa1df…8a9c sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$312
other 28% −$145
crypto 7% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 33% +15.2%
≤30d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 33% +15.2%
≤90d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 33% +15.2%
all 15 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 33% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 33% +15.2%
10% -15.9% 33% +4.2%
15% -24.1% 33% -5.9%
20% -31.5% 33% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$46 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 24¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$192 +188%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $105 −$10 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 +$2 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $119 −$116 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $82 +$194 +238%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $38 −$21 -56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 6m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $102 6m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $102 7m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 7m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $102 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $51 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 29h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $54 29h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $104 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.80 · official $390.41 · 53 history records