Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1dc…1d15 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2
other 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% +$7
politics 2% −$7
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 22% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 44 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage485d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 12 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 30 $1 −$1 -71%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on Ma May 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 23 $7 $0 +1%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
UCF vs. Oklahoma State Mar 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.54 · official $43.54 (match) · 127 history records