Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1dc…4f72 crypto 591 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$521 (+2%) realized +$515 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%444W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day111.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$39
14 days−$370
30 days−$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$926
other 2% −$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -3.3% -12.5% 79% 78% -8.4%
≤30d 590 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 48% -14.4%
≤90d 590 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 48% -14.4%
all 590 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 48% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 17% -22.6%
15% -29.5% 4% -30.1%
20% -36.5% 2% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$515
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses444 / 146
Open positions1
Markets (closed)590 / 591
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day111.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Down 82¢ 96¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.14 · official $44.85 (match) · 3500 history records