Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1da…79d1
sports · 318 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$78 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$63 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses164 / 148
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)312 / 318
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 6 History 312 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$20
14 days+$12
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $7 +$13 +180%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $3 +$3 +73%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $4 +$6 +140%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $3 +$2 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$20
other 16% +$40
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $2 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $3 7h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 9h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 12h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 30h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $3 31h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $3 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 52% +6.1%
≤30d 96 +1.4% -8.2% 52% 52% -2.8%
≤90d 307 +3.5% -6.3% 52% 52% -3.9%
all 312 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 52% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 52% -4.5%
10% -14.8% 52% -13.6%
15% -23.1% 48% -22.0%
20% -30.6% 44% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.68 · official $24.68 (match) · 753 history records