Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1da…835a other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$5
other 43% −$4
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 14 -6.7% -15.5% 29% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 15 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 36 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -22.7% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage397d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $72 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $13 −$5 -40%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $5 −$3 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -25%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Leon Draisaitl win the Hart Trophy? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $19 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $14 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $33 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $24 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $42 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $42 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.70 (match) · 127 history records