trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 56¢ | $116,357 | $98,160 | −$18,197 (-16%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 65¢ | 80¢ | $24,261 | $30,163 | +$5,903 (+24%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 36¢ | 29¢ | $1,803 | $1,435 | −$367 (-20%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 48¢ | $1,478 | $975 | −$503 (-34%) |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 48¢ | 46¢ | $107 | $104 | −$4 (-4%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | No | 46¢ | 44¢ | $68 | $64 | −$4 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $903 | +$97 | +11% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 01 | $139,313 | +$21,477 | +15% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +13.1% | +2.3% | 100% | 100% | +4.4% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +13.1% | +2.3% | 100% | 100% | +4.4% |
| all | 2 | +13.1% | +2.3% | 100% | 100% | +4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +2.3% | 100% | +4.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -7.5% | 0% | -5.6% |
| 15% | -16.4% | 0% | -14.7% |
| 20% | -24.6% | 0% | -23.1% |