Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d7…e17e other 22 markets active 552d ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$215,770 (+73%) realized +$215,770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +450% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +282% what you keep after slip
Net edge+282%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$13,401per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% +$524,379
other 1% +$12,212
world 0% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+397.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -99.7% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.5%
≤30d 4 -99.7% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.5%
≤90d 4 -99.7% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.5%
all 34 +450.1% +397.7% 53% 47% +152.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +397.7% 47% +152.0%
10% +350.1% 44% +127.8%
15% ← realistic here +306.6% 44% +105.8%
20% +266.8% 44% +85.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +450% · $-wt +181% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +865% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30,011 vs −$297 · ×101.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×113.63 per $1 lost it wins $113.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$215,770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 22
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$13,401
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jun 18 $92 −$101 -109%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $204 −$202 -99%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $12 +$6 +54%
Biden appoints a man as Secret Service Director? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jun 18 $49 +$123 +252%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $341 −$341 -100%
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $68,397 +$12,067 +18%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election? Oct 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will André Fernandes win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election? Oct 30 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia genera Oct 30 $9 +$7 +74%
Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia gen Oct 30 $599 +$3 +0%
Will the Conservatives win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia Oct 30 $367 +$897 +245%
Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general el Oct 30 $107 +$1,126 +1055%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 24 $66 +$557 +846%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 24 $53 +$1,523 +2895%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $54 +$867 +1598%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $250 +$2,033 +813%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $33 +$2,877 +8744%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $5 +$2,397 +43608%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $193 +$5,197 +2688%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the 2024 New Brunswick general e Oct 22 $1 $0 -36%
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass? Oct 21 $3,298 −$3,239 -98%
Will Renato Usatîi win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? Oct 21 $299 −$209 -70%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $110,379 +$1,193 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 19 $9 +$126 +1394%
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 18 $150 +$3,937 +2625%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 18 $110,316 +$505,259 +458%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $63 551d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 551d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 552d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 553d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 553d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 553d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $44 554d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 554d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 554d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 554d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 555d
Will 2024 be better than 2023? SELL Yes 51¢ $67 555d
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 567d
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 567d
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 567d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records