Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1d4…8523 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$5
politics 12% $0
other 10% $0
economics 10% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 10% -10.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 10% -10.8%
all 41 +0.0% -9.5% 27% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -10.2%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage322d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $6 −$1 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $64 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $60 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $55 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $22 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $57 12h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $63 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $64 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $26 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $26 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $32 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records