Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1d1…5557 sports 335 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$337 (+3%) realized +$337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate69%230W / 104L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$172
other 30% +$278
crypto 1% −$106
world 1% −$4
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.0% -4.1% 67% 67% +14.5%
≤30d 8 -20.5% -28.1% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 55 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 60% -6.9%
all 334 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 66% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 66% -6.6%
10% -16.6% 57% -15.5%
15% -24.6% 37% -23.7%
20% -32.0% 28% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses230 / 104
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 335
History coverage140d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 +$33 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $129 +$59 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$60 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $74 −$72 -97%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $66 +$44 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $60 +$61 +101%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Canucks vs. Ducks Apr 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 Apr 12 $19 +$10 +53%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $60 −$60 -99%
Canucks vs. Kings Apr 10 $20 +$8 +39%
Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Apr 10 $20 +$9 +47%
Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 Apr 10 $20 +$11 +54%
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Predators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $20 +$7 +36%
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Apr 08 $20 +$13 +64%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 08 $30 +$13 +45%
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Apr 07 $20 +$13 +64%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $20 +$13 +67%
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 Apr 05 $20 +$13 +65%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $20 +$23 +114%
Jets vs. Blue Jackets Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Apr 04 $40 +$29 +72%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 03 $20 +$9 +45%
Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Apr 02 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $20 +$20 +101%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Mar 31 $20 +$10 +52%
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 Mar 31 $20 +$14 +72%
Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Mar 29 $50 +$41 +82%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 28 $68 +$42 +61%
Kings vs. Canucks Mar 27 $50 +$29 +59%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 27 $50 +$33 +67%
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5 Mar 26 $60 +$25 +42%
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $150 +$109 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $73 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $89 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $129 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $66 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 5d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $74 16d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 12¢ $21 24d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 59¢ $66 49d
Canucks vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 73¢ $55 65d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 66d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 66d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 66d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $60 66d
Canucks vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 64¢ $20 66d
Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $19 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $60 67d
Canucks vs. Kings BUY Kings 72¢ $20 68d
Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 68d
Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 68d
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 68d
Predators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 68d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 70d
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 70d
Golden Knights vs. Canucks BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $30 70d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 70d
Blackhawks vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 60¢ $20 71d
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 71d
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.47 · official $72.47 (match) · 577 history records