Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1cb…af17 weather 802 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+4%) realized +$214 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%208W / 582L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% +$134
sports 13% −$52
world 6% −$6
politics 3% −$15
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +2.3% -7.5% 14% 14% +11.2%
≤30d 282 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 16% -12.7%
≤90d 790 -3.8% -13.0% 26% 17% -8.8%
all 790 -3.8% -13.0% 26% 17% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 17% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 15% -17.5%
15% -28.9% 14% -25.5%
20% -35.9% 13% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses208 / 582
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions12
Markets (closed)790 / 802
History coverage79d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 50¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+662%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $3 $10 +$6 (+204%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? No 3¢ 6¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$34 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$5 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +864%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$67 +1148%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$21 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$56 +593%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY No 5¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.21 · official $52.31 · 2867 history records