Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A1 0xa1c4…ab9c crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$222 (-1%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate73%27W / 10L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$9
sports 28% −$6
economics 15% −$3
other 15% −$4
crypto 7% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -2.0% -11.3% 73% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -10.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$25 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses27 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage599d
Avg bet$543
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? May 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? May 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 10 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 15? Feb 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? Jan 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 23? Jan 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $2,878 −$3 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $2,888 −$3 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $2,888 −$3 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $2,899 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6? Dec 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 29? Dec 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 28? Nov 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 27? Oct 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 05 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $90 −$3 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 04 $60 +$8 +14%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Dec 27 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $2,387 +$5 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $4,781 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 47d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $89 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $120 107d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $100 119d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 130d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $28 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $40 140d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $50 148d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $35 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $35 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 171d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $2,875 176d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $2,878 176d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $2,885 176d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2,888 176d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $2,885 176d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $2,888 176d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,896 176d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,899 176d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 177d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 188d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 198d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 201d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.24 · official $161.24 (match) · 80 history records