Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa1c3…24d2 world 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+11%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$26
crypto 13% −$9
tech 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +212.5% +182.7% 50% 50% +239.3%
≤30d 10 -25.1% -32.2% 20% 20% +5.2%
≤90d 10 -25.1% -32.2% 20% 20% +5.2%
all 10 -25.1% -32.2% 20% 20% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 20% +5.2%
10% -38.7% 20% -4.9%
15% -44.6% 10% -14.1%
20% -50.1% 10% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$8 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage16d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $15 +$79 +525%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.77 · official $33.77 (match) · 16 history records