Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1c1…4cf4 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$10
world 27% $0
other 18% −$5
politics 6% −$1
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% −$2
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 18% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 18% -9.5%
all 43 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 5% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage471d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $47 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 18 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 17 $4 $0 -8%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $148 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $32 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $24 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $4 +$10 +282%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $12 $0 -0%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 07 $15 $0 +1%
Sacramento State vs. Portland State Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'million' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Spurs Mar 03 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Ilhan Omar applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? Mar 03 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $48 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $48 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $26 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $30 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $4 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $17 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $28 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $33 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records