Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1c1…4f49 crypto 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%331W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$17
politics 4% −$14
finance 2% +$2
other 2% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 343 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 343 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.1%
all 343 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses331 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)343 / 346
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $14 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 15h
BNB Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.90 · official $60.90 (match) · 684 history records