Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1c0…f6c1 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized +$4 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$25
sports 29% −$47
world 4% −$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +25.6% +13.7% 44% 44% -10.9%
≤30d 9 +25.6% +13.7% 44% 44% -10.9%
≤90d 9 +25.6% +13.7% 44% 44% -10.9%
all 9 +25.6% +13.7% 44% 44% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 44% -10.9%
10% +2.8% 44% -19.4%
15% -7.1% 44% -27.2%
20% -16.2% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,081
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage13d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $300 $273 −$27 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+43%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $266 −$21 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$36 +248%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$9 +39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$50 +185%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$74 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 55m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 58m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $7 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $31 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 33h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $22 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 46h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $94 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $71 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $205 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 11d
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 11d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,080.73 · official $1,081.11 (match) · 54 history records