Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1bb…e9b7 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day208.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.9% -17.5% 35% 17% -19.4%
≤30d 48 -8.9% -17.5% 35% 17% -19.4%
≤90d 48 -8.9% -17.5% 35% 17% -19.4%
all 48 -8.9% -17.5% 35% 17% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 17% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 8% -27.1%
15% -32.6% 2% -34.2%
20% -39.2% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day208.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 76¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.52 · official $3.87 (match) · 237 history records