Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b9…5e00 crypto 340 markets active 23h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,506 (-15%) realized −$8,506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%126W / 214L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$8,092
world 3% −$514
other 2% −$461
sports 1% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 36% -10.1%
≤30d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 37% -14.8%
≤90d 157 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 39% -25.7%
all 340 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 36% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 36% -23.3%
10% -29.3% 35% -30.6%
15% -36.1% 34% -37.3%
20% -42.4% 33% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$142 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses126 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage118d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $173 −$166 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $288 +$293 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $160 +$129 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $95 −$76 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $140 +$251 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$57 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $161 −$154 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $462 −$304 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $395 −$380 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $370 +$488 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $84 +$288 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $404 −$389 -96%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $507 −$21 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $665 −$99 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $132 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $329 −$262 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $437 +$233 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $305 +$272 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $353 −$48 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $389 −$374 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $377 −$367 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 03 $436 +$295 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 03 $255 +$217 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 21 $336 −$326 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5AM ET May 21 $342 −$328 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4AM ET May 21 $95 −$22 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3AM ET May 21 $401 +$400 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $239 −$229 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2AM ET May 21 $208 −$176 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $72 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 21 $186 +$131 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $156 +$289 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12AM ET May 21 $256 +$242 +94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $390 −$133 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3PM ET May 11 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET May 11 $33 +$52 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 05 $146 −$141 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 05 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $123 +$124 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 05 $90 −$64 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 05 $193 −$186 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET May 05 $204 −$197 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $174 −$170 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $194 +$188 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4PM ET May 04 $269 −$258 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $173 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $78 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $582 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $288 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $289 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $160 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $155 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $95 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $390 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $140 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $140 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $83 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $161 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $158 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $462 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $395 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $858 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $370 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $372 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $84 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $404 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $486 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $507 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $129 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $616 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $537 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $140 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records