Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b8…744b world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$2
politics 14% −$2
other 12% −$3
sports 4% $0
weather 2% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 37 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage477d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $12 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $18 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 02 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $11 −$4 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
La Salle vs. George Mason Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $13 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $12 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $14 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $17 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $17 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records