Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b8…6528 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 87L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$719
14 days+$694
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$426
tech 10% −$87
finance 6% −$39
world 5% −$133
politics 4% −$8
sports 3% +$547
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.3% +23.4% 75% 62% +0.8%
≤30d 14 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 43% -2.7%
≤90d 92 -8.1% -16.8% 8% 7% -9.9%
all 95 -8.9% -17.6% 8% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 6% -10.2%
10% -25.5% 3% -18.8%
15% -32.7% 3% -26.6%
20% -39.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$24 · ×9.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,472
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage260d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $740 $735 −$4 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 76¢ $398 $400 +$3 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 88¢ $361 $336 −$25 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,007 +$132 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,007 +$133 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,177 +$62 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,054 +$125 +12%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $784 +$466 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $225 +$874 +388%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $93 −$25 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 06 $100 −$45 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $251 −$39 -16%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $199 −$199 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $383 +$151 +40%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May? May 23 $140 −$42 -30%
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026? May 23 $211 −$6 -3%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 23 $0 $0 -1%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by June 30? May 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M? May 23 $135 −$31 -23%
Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $24.5B? May 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $300M? May 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31? May 22 $203 −$43 -21%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? May 21 $49 −$21 -44%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? May 21 $54 −$15 -27%
Will Deckers Q4 HOKA revenue be above $680M? May 21 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? May 21 $43 −$23 -53%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B May 21 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? May 21 $199 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? May 21 $368 −$7 -2%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nerman Fatic vs Kyrian Jacquet May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.275B? May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.35B? May 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Me May 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.50B? May 20 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? May 20 $8 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 20 $175 −$7 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? May 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? May 20 $12 −$4 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? May 20 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? May 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legisl May 20 $204 −$2 -1%
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $11.0B? May 20 $1 $0 -28%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.6B? May 20 $186 −$4 -2%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? May 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the most seats in May 20 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $743 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $400 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $1,139 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $361 13h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $1,007 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $1,007 27h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $828 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $15 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $104 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $15 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $19 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $45 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $45 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $74 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $33 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $1,179 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,054 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $94 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $245 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $627 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,099 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $68 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,471.60 · official $1,471.60 (match) · 463 history records