Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b8…148d world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1
world 37% −$4
crypto 8% +$1
politics 7% −$4
sports 7% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 19 -5.2% -14.2% 11% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 19 -5.2% -14.2% 11% 5% -10.0%
all 49 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage324d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $14 −$2 -14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $67 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +24%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $45 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ty Isherwood win Love Island season 12? Aug 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $9 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $31 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $2 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $34 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $1 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $5 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $31 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records