Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b5…b080 crypto 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate52%116W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$6
politics 26% −$6
other 15% $0
sports 13% +$12
world 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +11.9% +1.2% 77% 15% -8.4%
≤90d 123 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 7% -9.4%
all 224 -4.1% -13.3% 52% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -21.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 5% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses116 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage166d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 22 above $230? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $8 +$7 +86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $109 $0 -0%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire May 28 $7 +$5 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $97 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $105 $0 +0%
Vicenza: Marco Cecchinato vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu May 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $116 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $117 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of May 18 May 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of May 18 May 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $124 $0 +0%
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17? May 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $123 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $123 +$1 +0%
Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 14 $122 $0 -0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins May 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 14 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 13 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $128 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 11 $128 $0 +0%
SeaHorses Mikawa vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings May 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 9? May 10 $121 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $126 $0 +0%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 08 $135 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 22 above $230? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $90 26d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 27d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 27d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 28d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 29d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 53¢ $8 29d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 29d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 29d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 29d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $97 30d
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Henri Squire BUY Stefano Travaglia 59¢ $7 30d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $104 30d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $104 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 30d
Vicenza: Marco Cecchinato vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu BUY Marco Cecchinato 80¢ $8 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 31d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $113 31d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $113 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $113 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $116 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.69 · official $116.69 (match) · 475 history records