Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa1b4…7e83 crypto 47 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+26%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$74
crypto 24% −$3
other 14% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +10.5% +0.0% 62% 57% +18.4%
≤30d 47 +10.5% +0.0% 62% 57% +18.4%
≤90d 47 +10.5% +0.0% 62% 57% +18.4%
all 47 +10.5% +0.0% 62% 57% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 57% +18.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 40% +7.1%
15% -18.3% 23% -3.3%
20% -26.3% 11% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.15 per $1 lost it wins $10.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $79 +$23 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $52 +$27 +52%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$19 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $79 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $79 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $52 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $52 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records