trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | $4,635 | $4,886 | +$251 (+5%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $7,648 | $0 | −$7,648 (-100%) |
| World Championships: Denmark vs. Italy | Italy | 39¢ | 0¢ | $51 | $0 | −$51 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 11 | $215,397 | +$18,388 | +8% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $20,590 | +$152 | +1% |
| World Championships: Denmark vs. Italy | May 24 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| World Championships: Latvia vs. USA | May 23 | $45 | +$5 | +11% |
| World Championships: Latvia vs. Finland | May 21 | $42 | +$5 | +12% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 01 | $4,625 | +$23 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | Apr 02 | $4,559 | +$66 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 100% | 0% | -1.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 80% | 40% | -2.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -9.2% | -17.9% | 86% | 29% | -2.3% |
| all | 7 | -9.2% | -17.9% | 86% | 29% | -2.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -17.9% | 29% | -2.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -25.7% | 0% | -11.6% |
| 15% | -32.9% | 0% | -20.2% |
| 20% | -39.5% | 0% | -28.0% |