Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1b1…6a2a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,131 (-12%) realized −$1,131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,136
tech 12% +$1
crypto 10% +$1
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 -7.7% -16.5% 86% 29% -22.9%
all 16 -5.2% -14.2% 81% 19% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 19% -20.6%
10% -22.4% 12% -28.2%
15% -29.9% 6% -35.1%
20% -36.8% 6% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$646 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$1,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage194d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $211 −$210 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $163 +$47 +29%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $162 +$1 +1%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $140 +$22 +16%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $140 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 10 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $2,653 +$49 +2%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 27 $980 +$681 +70%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $997 −$17 -2%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 12 above $295? Jan 17 $996 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $199 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $728 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 28d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q BUY BNK FEARX 82¢ $211 37d
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 77¢ $163 43d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $162 64d
Mavericks vs. Suns BUY Suns 86¢ $140 78d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 100¢ $140 85d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors BUY Grizzlies 88¢ $1,710 136d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 58¢ $992 140d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL JD Gaming 43¢ $992 140d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 72¢ $1,661 141d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 59¢ $980 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $395 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $1 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $1 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $1 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $16 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $9 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $323 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 57¢ $234 150d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 58¢ $997 150d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 12 above $295? BUY Yes 100¢ $996 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $728 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $199 193d
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $32 193d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $36 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.94 · official $122.94 (match) · 42 history records