Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1b0…ce03 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$4
other 25% +$4
politics 9% −$15
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +19.4% +8.0% 43% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 21 +19.4% +8.0% 43% 5% -9.1%
all 46 +3.4% -6.5% 48% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 4% -10.1%
10% -15.4% 4% -18.7%
15% -23.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage457d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $76 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $117 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $48 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? Apr 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 07 $1 $0 -13%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $6 +$3 +51%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $1 $0 -16%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $45 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $44 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.55 · official $44.73 (match) · 172 history records