Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1af…68ef other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$29
crypto 14% −$27
sports 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-83.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -70.9% -73.6% 20% 20% +7.6%
≤30d 8 -81.8% -83.5% 12% 12% -11.5%
≤90d 8 -81.8% -83.5% 12% 12% -11.5%
all 8 -81.8% -83.5% 12% 12% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.5% 12% -11.5%
10% -85.1% 12% -19.9%
15% -86.5% 12% -27.7%
20% -87.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$5 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$35 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.31 · official $64.31 · 16 history records