Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1ad…a4a5 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+8%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$142
14 days+$134
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$278
world 7% −$125
other 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +30.2% +17.8% 58% 58% +24.4%
≤30d 37 +7.9% -2.3% 62% 62% +5.5%
≤90d 42 +8.5% -1.9% 64% 64% -0.1%
all 42 +8.5% -1.9% 64% 64% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 64% -0.1%
10% -11.3% 55% -9.6%
15% -19.8% 43% -18.4%
20% -27.7% 33% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage38d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$16 +57%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 +$37 +172%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 16 $28 +$23 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$79 +158%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 +$71 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $30 +$36 +122%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $35 −$35 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $37 +$29 +76%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $54 +$13 +24%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 02 $29 +$9 +31%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $51 +$25 +49%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$35 +86%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $41 +$22 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $41 +$10 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $30 +$26 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang May 26 $40 +$15 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $30 +$6 +18%
Chisinau: Elias Ymer vs Saba Purtseladze May 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $24 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $36 +$14 +38%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Draw at halftime? May 23 $12 +$14 +112%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $62 +$20 +32%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs May 13 $199 +$37 +18%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $126 −$125 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $19 +$12 +64%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions May 10 $51 +$27 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $28 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $21 13h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Muchova 54¢ $28 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $51 36h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 41¢ $31 42h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $43 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $43 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $2 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $65 5d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 57¢ $35 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 12¢ $15 10d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $37 11d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 80¢ $54 11d
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Pierluigi Basile 76¢ $29 14d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 66¢ $51 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 15d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 12¢ $5 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 17d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 25¢ $17 19d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $10 19d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 73¢ $42 19d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 68¢ $40 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang BUY Tamara Korpatsch 80¢ $41 20d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanghai Sharks 53¢ $30 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Facundo Acosta 72¢ $40 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records