Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A1 0xa1ac…d549 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-27%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$24
crypto 9% −$5
sports 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -57.0% -61.1% 33% 25% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.1% 25% -51.2%
10% -64.8% 17% -55.9%
15% -68.2% 17% -60.1%
20% -71.4% 8% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage695d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid hit $55 in 2025? Nov 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Sep 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 0XOMNIA win the PvP trading competition? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SMARTESTMONEY.HL win the PvP trading competition? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GUTHIX win the PvP trading competition? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 05 $1 $0 +37%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Feb 05 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul? Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala Harris" during his Bitcoin Conference speech? Oct 30 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.59 · official $43.59 (match) · 23 history records