Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a8…6764 sports 832 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$874 (-5%) realized −$808 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%310W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days−$71
14 days−$618
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$167
other 15% +$86
crypto 1% −$20
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -8.1% -16.9% 32% 31% -11.1%
≤30d 746 -9.4% -18.0% 36% 35% -8.8%
≤90d 796 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 39% -7.8%
all 796 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 39% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 39% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -16.6%
15% -27.1% 38% -24.7%
20% -34.3% 37% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized−$808
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses310 / 486
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions36
Markets (closed)796 / 832
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 50¢ $64 $73 +$8 (+13%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 38¢ $80 $71 −$10 (-12%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 27¢ $80 $64 −$17 (-21%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Over 40¢ 39¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 42¢ 38¢ $67 $61 −$6 (-9%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 30¢ $75 $56 −$19 (-26%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ 44¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 31¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $74 +$103 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $24 +$44 +182%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $9 +$12 +138%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 19 $79 −$78 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $73 −$72 -98%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 19 $89 +$216 +242%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $69 −$68 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $2 +$3 +109%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 +$3 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $66 −$65 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $70 +$86 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $19 +$3 +13%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $85 −$83 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $15 +$22 +152%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $27 +$37 +134%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $48 +$55 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $85 +$130 +152%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 +$35 +180%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $94 +$26 +28%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $90 +$125 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $7 +$12 +162%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 45m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $44 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $65 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $27 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 4h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $42 4h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 6h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $44 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 10h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 11h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $66 11h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $22 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $53 14h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 17h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $3 17h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $3 17h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $24 18h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 18h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $3 20h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $25 20h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 41¢ $48 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.34 · official $1,308.33 (match) · 3500 history records