Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a7…ace4 other 828 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,818 (+15%) realized +$3,578 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%465W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day98.5pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$933now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,496
sports 36% +$1,217
crypto 0% −$90
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 416 -70.1% -73.0% 18% 17% -32.8%
≤30d 1100 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 39% -13.4%
≤90d 1100 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 39% -13.4%
all 1100 -22.3% -29.7% 42% 39% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 39% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 32% -21.7%
15% -42.6% 23% -29.2%
20% -48.2% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$933
Realized+$3,578
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses465 / 635
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1100 / 828
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day98.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $420 $525 +$105 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 86¢ 100¢ $144 $168 +$24 (+17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 51¢ 100¢ $82 $160 +$78 (+96%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $48 $80 +$32 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Sporting Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Granada CF vs. Burgos CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $61 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $69 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $19 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $19 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $39 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $64 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $60 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $105 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $82 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $9 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $9 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $22 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $8 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $51 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $12 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $932.67 · official $932.67 (match) · 3500 history records