Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a5…004a crypto 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%336W / 361L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -0.0% -9.6% 49% 49% -10.0%
≤30d 310 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 49% -11.3%
≤90d 427 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 47% -13.7%
all 697 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 48% -8.7%
10% -19.7% 48% -17.4%
15% -27.4% 48% -25.4%
20% -34.5% 47% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses336 / 361
Open positions0
Markets (closed)697 / 697
History coverage126d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 697 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2325 history records