Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a4…e311 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-6%) realized −$88 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%116W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$21
14 days+$22
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$63
sports 41% +$25
crypto 7% −$12
politics 7% −$22
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -15.8% -23.9% 59% 26% -6.7%
≤30d 84 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 29% -6.6%
≤90d 161 -26.5% -33.5% 45% 28% -13.6%
all 236 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -15.1%
10% -29.3% 22% -23.3%
15% -36.1% 16% -30.7%
20% -42.4% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses116 / 120
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)236 / 253
History coverage125d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 63¢ 86¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 90¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 69¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 62¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 74¢ 39¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1820%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $40 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -66%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -39%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$2 -12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 +$6 +20%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 63¢ $20 59m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $3 22h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 22h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $30 26h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 26h
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 26h
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 26h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 93¢ $9 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $9 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $9 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 47h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $6 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.60 · official $76.60 (match) · 687 history records