Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a1…acf2 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-11%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%34W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.0% -25.8% 64% 55% -11.3%
≤30d 11 -18.0% -25.8% 64% 55% -11.3%
≤90d 59 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 46% -21.2%
all 59 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 46% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 46% -21.2%
10% -23.7% 37% -28.8%
15% -31.1% 29% -35.7%
20% -37.9% 15% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage68d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 24 $83 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 24 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 24 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$13 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 24 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 24 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 23 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 23 $81 +$26 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 23 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 13 $16 +$28 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 13 $73 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 13 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 13 $17 −$15 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 13 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 13 $1 +$4 +371%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $67 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $64 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records