Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a1…0845 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$3
sports 12% −$1
other 12% −$2
world 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage86d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $181 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $121 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $121 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $124 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $125 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 4d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $57 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $58 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $58 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $58 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $58 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $58 10d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $58 12d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $58 16d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 16d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 17d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 17d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $58 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $59 21d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $59 21d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $59 28d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $59 28d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $59 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 31d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 31d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $59 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $59 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.77 · official $56.77 (match) · 199 history records