Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1a1…e21e crypto 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-3%) realized −$193 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate73%134W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$94
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -13.5% -21.7% 70% 18% -12.0%
≤30d 183 -11.2% -19.7% 73% 16% -12.4%
≤90d 183 -11.2% -19.7% 73% 16% -12.4%
all 183 -11.2% -19.7% 73% 16% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 16% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 12% -20.8%
15% -34.4% 8% -28.4%
20% -40.8% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses134 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 58¢ 48¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$6 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $16 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $17 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $21 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $26 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $22 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $21 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $20 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $22 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $20 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $21 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $18 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.02 · official $11.36 (match) · 512 history records