Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa19d…3909
sports · 369 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,405 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,145 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,816
Realized+$3,145
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses192 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,941
Open positions22
Markets (closed)346 / 369
History coverage14d
Avg bet$783
Trades / day225.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 22 History 346 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,852
7 days+$696
14 days+$3,145
30 days+$3,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 67¢ 100¢ $3,246 $4,843 +$1,596 (+49%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 91¢ 92¢ $1,820 $1,830 +$10 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 82¢ 81¢ $1,230 $1,222 −$8 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 35¢ 100¢ $339 $968 +$629 (+186%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 36¢ 34¢ $551 $527 −$23 (-4%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) TheMongolz 49¢ 50¢ $498 $503 +$5 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $141 $404 +$263 (+186%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) PARIVISION 67¢ 82¢ $271 $331 +$61 (+22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $320 $305 −$15 (-5%)
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? No 65¢ 70¢ $268 $289 +$21 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 43¢ 44¢ $226 $229 +$4 (+2%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 18¢ 64¢ $62 $220 +$158 (+256%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 52¢ 55¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+25%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+110%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 28¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) TheMongolz 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $2,299 $4 −$2,295 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 51¢ 0¢ $382 $0 −$382 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) FURIA 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner G2 Ares 33¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 12¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A HMBLE 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$8 +96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $999 +$368 +37%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,417 +$129 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,838 −$821 -29%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $741 +$131 +18%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $197 +$31 +16%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $162 −$130 -80%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$12 +38%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 11 $43 +$24 +56%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $329 +$166 +50%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 11 $277 +$218 +79%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 +$11 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $138 +$46 +33%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $795 +$237 +30%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $165 +$85 +52%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 9? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $71 −$20 -29%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $324 +$288 +89%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $254 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $782 +$7 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $375 −$24 -6%
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $252 −$140 -55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $162 −$162 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 11 $134 −$134 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs FULL SENSE (+2.5) Jun 11 $433 −$160 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $222 −$222 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$2,962
politics 20% −$702
world 7% +$894
other 1% +$2
finance 0% +$30
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 10¢ $30 3m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL PARIVISION 42¢ $103 6m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $41 8m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 62¢ $33 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $15 8m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $42 10m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,613 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $51 17m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 36¢ $449 18m
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $273 19m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $1,367 20m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 82¢ $1,230 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $43 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $93 21m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 36¢ $112 24m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $128 25m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $80 29m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $22 30m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $320 30m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $11 30m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $340 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 53¢ $43 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $320 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $5 42m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $12 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 41¢ $24 44m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $102 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 38% -9.2%
≤30d 346 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 40% -8.5%
≤90d 346 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 40% -8.5%
all 346 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 40% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover225.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 40% -8.5%
10% -19.8% 31% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 25% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,816.37 · official $11,816.67 (match) · 3500 history records