Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A1 0xa19a…893c sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1
other 47% +$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.5% -18.1% 73% 27% -7.3%
≤30d 12 -6.1% -15.1% 75% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 12 -6.1% -15.1% 75% 33% -7.2%
all 12 -6.1% -15.1% 75% 33% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 33% -7.2%
10% -23.2% 33% -16.1%
15% -30.6% 17% -24.2%
20% -37.4% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $115 +$6 +6%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +46%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records