Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa197…2661 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$209 (-27%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$155
14 days−$279
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$199
crypto 35% −$44
sports 21% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 35% -33.9%
≤30d 24 -30.0% -36.6% 33% 29% -42.6%
≤90d 24 -30.0% -36.6% 33% 29% -42.6%
all 24 -30.0% -36.6% 33% 29% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 29% -42.6%
10% -42.7% 12% -48.1%
15% -48.2% 4% -53.1%
20% -53.3% 4% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +28%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$4 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$7 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$3 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$22 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$17 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$17 -83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$38 -75%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $81 +$9 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $72 −$34 -47%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $8 −$4 -42%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $47 −$39 -83%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$11 -59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$57 -78%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$21 -47%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$43 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $9 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 7m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes $8 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $11 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $18 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $18 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $15 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $10 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $32 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $35 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $37 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up $4 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 91¢ $20 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records