Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa194…1b1a crypto 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (530 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-7%) realized −$483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate42%388W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day529.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (530 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 925 -28.9% -35.6% 42% 18% -20.8%
≤30d 925 -28.9% -35.6% 42% 18% -20.8%
≤90d 925 -28.9% -35.6% 42% 18% -20.8%
all 925 -28.9% -35.6% 42% 18% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover529.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.6% 18% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 17% -28.3%
15% -47.4% 15% -35.3%
20% -52.6% 13% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses388 / 537
Open positions0
Markets (closed)925 / 733
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day529.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 925 Trades
no open positions (385 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records