Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa191…b426 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-7%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day124.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 50% -4.0%
≤30d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 50% -4.0%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 50% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -13.2%
15% -25.6% 50% -21.6%
20% -32.9% 50% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$33 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$26 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$48 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$79 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$34 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$31 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$12 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$26 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$26 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$20 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $72 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $14 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $42 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $45 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records