Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa18e…f5fa
crypto · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$45 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$24 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.0% -34.0% 42% 33% -32.2%
≤30d 12 -27.0% -34.0% 42% 33% -32.2%
≤90d 12 -27.0% -34.0% 42% 33% -32.2%
all 12 -27.0% -34.0% 42% 33% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 33% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 8% -38.7%
15% -46.1% 8% -44.6%
20% -51.3% 8% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records