Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa18d…f38c crypto 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,647 (-1%) realized −$4,640 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%260W / 92L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,800per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$858
7 days+$531
14 days+$700
30 days+$1,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$2,046
other 18% +$12,866
politics 18% −$10,222
world 13% −$587
economics 5% +$1,378
sports 4% −$6,631
tech 2% +$403
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 36% -6.4%
≤30d 20 +4.4% -5.5% 75% 45% -4.3%
≤90d 63 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 25% -6.5%
all 352 -1.7% -11.1% 74% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 34% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 14% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$667) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$542 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$3,689
Realized−$4,640
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses260 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)352 / 356
History coverage337d
Avg bet$1,800
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 72¢ 72¢ $2,946 $2,926 −$20 (-1%)
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $550 $559 +$9 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,406 +$228 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,304 +$630 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $4,753 +$389 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $405 −$275 -68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$10 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $110 +$24 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $587 +$19 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $758 −$570 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $992 +$32 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $400 +$55 +14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $421 +$83 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $700 +$38 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $527 +$173 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $152 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 30 $100 −$17 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $329 +$199 +60%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 24 $101 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $324 +$28 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $369 +$55 +15%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $340 +$30 +9%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $418 −$41 -10%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $103 +$13 +13%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $132 −$71 -53%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $500 −$317 -63%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 13 $140 +$45 +32%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 13 $124 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 13 $106 −$3 -3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $190 −$3 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 13 $312 −$5 -2%
Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24? May 12 $413 +$49 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 12 $402 −$12 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 11 $172 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $196 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $205 $0 +0%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 08 $249 +$18 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $376 −$32 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 02 $117 −$21 -18%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 01 $174 +$3 +2%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 01 $217 −$4 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $534 +$28 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $753 +$7 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 25 $986 +$134 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $314 −$29 -9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $340 +$50 +15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 15 $448 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $954 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $1,008 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $1,008 1h
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 85¢ $201 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,635 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,406 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $5,934 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $5,304 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $4,994 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $130 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $405 2d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 85¢ $151 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $293 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $604 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 78¢ $101 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 92¢ $2,809 5d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 83¢ $201 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $110 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 97¢ $587 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 92¢ $1,003 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 21¢ $188 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $119 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 87¢ $139 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 92¢ $85 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $181 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 86¢ $400 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $992 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,689.26 · official $3,689.26 (match) · 1630 history records