Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa18c…6c57 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
tech 34% −$1
crypto 18% +$5
politics 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 17% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 42% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +6.5% -3.6% 53% 13% -9.4%
all 45 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 9% -9.3%
10% -16.0% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 7% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage238d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $399 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $90 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $240 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? May 07 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 02 $2 −$2 -82%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Jan 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Jan 09 $20 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 07 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 25 $11 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $250 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $215 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $215 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 5d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 5d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $238 5d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 5d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 5d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 8d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $240 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $50 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $47 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.87 · official $254.87 (match) · 121 history records